Tuley’s Takes- College Football Conference Championship Best Bets:
Can you believe it’s major college football’s Championship Week already; we certainly can’t here in the Tuley’s Takes home office. At least we finished the CFB regular season with a winning weekend as I went 2-1-1 ATS with my best bets here, starting with a win on Minnesota +2.5 in the Golden Gophers’ 24-7 win at Wisconsin on Black Friday, and then also won our first game on Saturday with Rutgers +2 also easily beating Michigan State 41-14. We were hoping to be on our way to a banner weekend, but our roll got slowed with Jacksonville State +2 pushing in a 19-17 loss to Western Kentucky and then Oklahoma +6 lost 34-17 at LSU on Saturday night. Still, we’ll take that heading into the college football conference championship games, and we can’t wait to start handicapping the bowl matchups, especially the expanded College Football Playoff!But that’s for next week. Let’s get to our “dog or pass” plays on Friday and Saturday.
Tulane vs. Army (+4.5)
American Athletic Conference ChampionshipFriday, 8:00 p.m. ET
We start with the American Athletic Conference title game hosted by the Black Knights at West Point. Regular readers know I don’t put much stock in home-field advantage these days, even in college football, but the fact Army (10-1 with only loss to No. 4 Notre Dame) is at home adds to my belief that the wrong team is favored. Tulane (9-3) has had a great season, too, but they’re also in what we call an “anti-swagger” spot as the Green Wave just had an 8-game winning streak snapped in their 34-24 loss vs. Memphis on Thanksgiving. I would be looking to fade Tulane on that fact alone, but this Army team can also pass the ball for once. Bryson Daily went 10-for-17 for 190 yards last week with a TD and no INTs vs. Texas-San Antonio and also ran for 142 more yards and two TDs. Tulane will have trouble slowing down Army’s triple option, which I guess we should call a quadruple option now. The Green Wave offense does average 39.1 points per game, but Army’s defense is tough as you would expect, allowing just 15.1 points per game. We’re getting the better overall team, plus more than a field goal. Go Army, Beat Tulane (as we also like the +170 on the money line)!
College Football Conference Championship Best Bet: Army +4.5
UNLV (+4.5) at Boise State
Mountain West ChampionshipFriday, 8:00 p.m. ET
The Mountain West Conference title game will be played on the blue turf of Boise State, but I’m on the road team here. I’ve watched the local team more this season since the Rebels’ fast start and have been impressed, especially after starting QB Matthew Sluka left the team over an NIL dispute and the team hardly missed a beat. All eyes will be on Boise’s Heisman Trophy candidate RB Ashton Jeanty as well as the Broncos trying to hold onto a CFB Playoff berth. This is a rematch as Boise won the first meeting 29-24 in Vegas as Jeanty scored the go-ahead TD early in the fourth quarter. But even though home field has flipped here, I’m confident this will be another coin-flip game that should come down to one possession, so I’m on the dog at anything over a field goal. I’ll be keeping an eye on this line as I suspect the late public money will flow in on the Broncos as I would feel even better if we can get +6 by kickoff.
College Football Conference Championship Best Bet: UNLV +4.5
Ohio (+2) vs. Miami (OH)
MAC ChampionshipSaturday, 12:00 p.m. ET
You know we love some MACtion here in the Tuley’s Takes office. The highlight of the MAC’s nonconference schedule was my alma mater, Northern Illinois, upsetting then-No. 5 Notre Dame back in September. Unfortunately, the Huskies weren’t able to carry that momentum into the conference season and finished middle-of-the-MAC at 4-4. Instead we have these two Ohio schools, who both went 7-1 in league play. This is played on a neutral field at Ford Field in Detroit.
This is also a rematch, as Miami (OH) won the first meeting 30-20 at home. Ohio got off to a slow start in that game due mostly to turnovers, trailing 16-0 at halftime and by as much as 30-6 in the third quarter. However, the same thing has happened with the Bobcats’ season as they started 4-3 but have won five straight games since that setback. So, we’re getting a team that’s just as hot with a great shot at revenge if Ohio can just keep from digging itself into a hole early. Ohio QB Parker Navarro threw two INTs in the first meeting before being benched and is better when running the ball. Actually, Miami QB Brett Gabbert has been more of the turnover machine lately with three INTs in the last two games. Ohio turns the tables here and is also worth a money line play at +110 or higher, especially if we don’t get the +3.
College Football Conference Championship Best Bet: Ohio +2
